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    Remember the 2016 polls?

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    sinister_midget
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    Remember the 2016 polls?

    Post  sinister_midget on Fri Nov 02, 2018 5:46 pm

    Don't bet against Republicans

    538 gives Republicans a 15% chance of hanging on to the House. Increasingly, though, 538 reminds me of a batter who goes 5 for 38. But we shall see.

    The aptly named Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics has a better track record. He was one of the few who saw the Republican tsunami in 2010 six months out.

    Trende is not convinced that Democrats will take the House.


     5h5 hours ago
    The most puzzling thing for me in this election (and the reason the scenario of Rs barely keeping/just barely losing the House keeps nagging at me) is this: the overall atmosphere isn't that atrocious for Republicans, and a lot of "big picture" signifiers of waves aren't here. 
    Sean T at RCP

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     5h5 hours ago
    Like, if you compare it to 2006, Trump's job approval is substantially higher than Bush's 37%.  The economy is significantly better. Republicans have about the same amount of baseline exposure in the House (i.e., Rs in D-leaning seats).
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     5h5 hours ago
    We haven't seen a massive surge in Democratic party identification. The enthusiasm gap is present, but not really of the magnitude that we've seen in the past.  And we typically see a big break at the end.  Maybe by the end of the day I'll eat my words here 
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     5h5 hours ago
    But while I think this week's polls have been worse for Rs than last week's, we don't seem to have a massive, late shift.  We have more than enough seats in play for Ds to take the House, and ultimately I think there's just too many fires for Rs to put them all out.
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     5h5 hours ago
    But we also have a LOT of House seats that are polling within a point or two.  If we get even a *slight* break among undecideds toward Republicans they end up keeping a lot of those seats.  Of course, the opposite is true as well.
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     5h
    5 hours ago
    But a *lot* of those seats also have some serious Republican DNA in them so I'd guess an R break is more likely than a D break(?) Anyway, this is what keeps me awake at night.  If Rs end up holding, or losing by a seat or two, I think I'll look at this thread
    Sean T at RCP

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     5h5 hours ago
    and think "what the hell was I thinking?"  Don't even get me started on the Senate, where I sort of feel like it will either be R+0 or R+5 without much room in the middle. But I guess that is what makes this fun. 
    Sean T at RCP

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    @SeanTrende
     5h5 hours ago
    Oh FFS people.  Silver's polls-only model gives Rs close to a 1-in-4 chance of holding the House, and his overall model gives Rs roughly the chance of having three kids and having them all boys.  Which I promise you happens.
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     5h5 hours ago
    Yet the mainstream Twitter hivemind seems almost unanimous in its assessment that Ds will take the House.  If there's any lesson to be learned from 2016, it's that this should make us nervous.
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     5h
    5 hours ago
    Like, the way to do this stuff is NOT to sit around and look for reasons you could be right.  It's to look for reasons that you could be wrong.  That's part of the exercise I put myself through constructing scenarios with Ds winning 40 and Ds winning 20.
    Sean T at RCP

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     5h5 hours ago
    And it is surprisingly easy to construct either one.  My hard count is D+32 right now, and I think that's about right but man.  There are plenty of reasons to put it on the high side, which right-thinking Twitter has been dwelling on ad nauseum,
    Sean T at RCP

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     5h5 hours ago
    But there are also lots of indicators as to why it might come out on the low side as well.  Again, if you learned nothing else from 2016, it should be that we ought to pay attention to those as well.

    So Trende learned from 2016 to be cautious. His hesitation about close races in Republican districts is valid because President Trump has solidified Republican support. The media fooled itself into thinking Jeff Flake and the late John McCain somehow represented the majority of Republicans.

    But President Trump has delivered: conservative judges, deregulation, a tax cut, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, and fighting back against the media. Doing just three of those five things would make the party regulars happy. He did all five.

    Plus he took the party off the hook for repealing Obamacare. Repeal is not as popular today as it was eight years ago. People are now Igor in "Young Frankenstein" asking, "What hump?"

    Voters can be fickle.

    Yes, everyone blames McCain for the repeal failing but he was the scapegoat. Republicans did not want to repeal the law, but they wanted to fix it.

    That is true. If McCain hadn't voted against it, at least one or another would have. Because RepubliCONs only hated it until they were in charge of it.

    Be that as it may, McCain DID vote against it. In so doing he gave cover for another turncoat that might be gone after this election had they needed to stick their own neck out. He was sick and knew he'd go away. So he provided a smokescreen for other losers to hide behind. Maybe that could be considered somewhat admirable or altruistic. But he didn't even do it to save somebody, he did it as his last hurrah to stick his tongue out at Trump.

    A real hero! Saddle the entire nation with something destructive and painful because you don't like somebody.


    President Trump has by ending the mandate.

    How do I know Republicans have Donald John Trump's back? Stormy Daniels. CNN and the rest of the Democrat Party tried to launch her as a scandal. She went off like a wet firecracker.

    How do I know Republicans will prevail on Tuesday?

    President Trump is a student of Sun Tzu. He wins the war and then goes to battle. He is barnstorming for Republicans across the Trumpiverse like it was his second term.

    By the way, the polls are not wrong, just misinterpreted.

    In retrospect, the 2016 polls were not wrong either. Hillary won by 2 points. The polls said 3 or 4.

    But the polls measured the wrong thing. In 2016, the polls failed to measure the Electoral College.

    In 2018, the popular vote still doesn't matter. Democrats can win the Senate vote by 12 million or more -- and wind up losing four seats because most of Democrats are concentrated in big cities and along the coasts.

    California's Senate race will be a shutout that Democrats will win 12 million votes to nothing because there is no Republican on the ballot. Both candidates are Democrats.

    Likewise, Massachusetts, New York, and the rest of New England will pile on the votes for Democrats.

    Republicans meanwhile will take Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota by a total of 1 million votes.

    The net result will be Republicans gaining four seats. Maybe more if West Virginia and a few other states flip.

    Democrat House votes are concentrated in affirmative action ghettos. The Voting Rights Act of 1965 mandates majority minority districts. That means Republicans have an easier time winning in the 400 other districts.

    Finally, President Trump's favorability is at 42%,according to Real Clear Politics. 

    Two years ago, the same site had it at 38%.

    Never bet against Donald John Trump.


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    sinister_midget
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    Re: Remember the 2016 polls?

    Post  sinister_midget on Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:24 pm

    REPORT: Dems Push Panic Button As Republican Midterm Election Enthusiasm Surges

    Republicans dominated early voting. Then, Democrats saw their side mobilizing for a final days push they were confident would give them the House. Now, Democrats are panicking as the mobilization on their side is being countered by suddenly resurgent and enthusiastic Republican voters determined to protect and promote President Donald Trump.



    It was never supposed to be this close. Historically the party that controls the White House loses and often loses big during the Midterm cycle.

    Not this time. The Senate looks increasingly secure for Republicans while the House, which was leaning heavily toward a Democrat takeover just a few weeks earlier, is now a dead heat between the two political parties and that has the Democrat leadership increasingly concerned as outlined in this Townhall report:

    Whoa: GOP Actually Leads in National Early Voting — Plus, Dems Suddenly Worried About Joe Manchin?



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    sinister_midget
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    Re: Remember the 2016 polls?

    Post  sinister_midget on Sat Nov 03, 2018 8:30 pm

    I think this is a great thread to attach this to.

    Trump stumps in cities that don't look that much like US

    President Donald Trump is in the final stretch of a 44-city blitz for the midterm elections, but the America he's glimpsed from the airport arrivals and his armored limousine is hardly a reflection of the nation as a whole.

    The president has mostly traveled to counties that are whiter, less educated and have lower incomes than the rest of the United States, according to Census Bureau data. It's a sign that he is seeking to galvanize the same group of voters that helped carry him to victory in 2016.

    Trump has largely eschewed the big metropolises for smaller cities. He has been to Tampa, Nashville, Cleveland and Houston — where the arenas could accommodate his crowds. But he's primarily been jet-setting to smaller places such as Elko, Nevada (population 20,078). Or, Mosinee, Wisconsin (population 4,023). Or, Belgrade, Montana (population 7,874).

    When Trump stops at Belgrade on Saturday, historical records suggest he will be the second president to visit the Montana town named after Serbia's capital city. In 2009, Barack Obama held a town hall in Belgrade to promote the Affordable Care Act.

    Since March, Trump has crisscrossed the country like a salesman with a set territory. The majority of his trips have been to just nine states. They are Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, West Virginia and Nevada.

    He told the left why he won against all of the nonsense they were spewing from the moment he announced. Yet they can't comprehend why he would do the same thing all over again.

    Believe me, it's not because it's hard to understand. It's because for the left on the coasts it's not possible to understand. THEY are the world. They're the smartest, the most wise, the most needed, natural-born leaders, the envy of everyone else. Any formula that doesn't pander to them can't possibly succeed.

    Except, of course, any formula that takes into account the way the country is actually structured. Like Trump did in 2016. Like Trump is doing now.

    If he runs in 2020, they still won't get it.


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    What I want our adversary to know is please work with our State Department. You really don’t want to work with me. That’s our message.
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